论滇僰古道的形成及其文化传播地位--茶马古道早期形态研究

滇僰古道始于僰道(今宜宾),经昭通、曲靖到滇池,沿途保留了比其他川滇古道更多的遗迹和文物,是古代连接四川和云南的第一通道。中原商周青铜器和四川三星堆遗址的青铜器多采用滇僰古道上今永善、昭阳、巧家的铜矿,证明滇僰古道最早形成于殷商时期。滇僰古道和公元前2世纪横贯云南东西的铜鼓分布线路的衔接,证明了滇僰古道是蜀身毒道最重要的必经之路,是古代中国沟通西域的重要路段,也是茶马古道早期形态的一条主干道。秦开五尺道、汉开南夷道、汉魏晋以来的墓和碑刻、唐袁滋的出行路线、西南官话的渗透,证明滇僰古道一直繁荣到近代。     

Maritime Security Cooperation

正The Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea agreement reached at the PLA-Navy-hosted regional symposium A group of more than 140 delegates,consisting of naval chiefs and representatives from 25 member and observer countries,attended the 14th Annual Conference of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium(WPNS)     

The Maritime Channel in Southeast Asia and China’s Strategic Pivots

With its transition from land power to sea power and the rapid expansion of its national interests, the security of maritime channels has become an important agenda for China. China has shifted its focus from the dilemma of Malacca Strait to the construction of a sea-lane network in its bid to protect its maritime rights and interests. To build its sea power as a strong nation, China should follow its “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” strategy and establish its strategic pivots at harbors at Sumatra Island and Kalimantan Island in Indonesia so as to improve its ability to ensure its navigational safety.     

Theory of Land-Ocean Peaceful Cooperation: a Geopolitical Study of the Sustainable Security of One Belt One Road

The joint establishment of One Belt One Road is a practice of international cooperation initiated by China and actively participated by other countries. One of the important issues is how to ensure sustainable common security, and what kind of geopolitical theory should be employed for guidance. Traditional geopolitical theories, such as sea power theory, land power theory and Rimland theory, mainly serve for the fi ght for geopolitical hegemony or military strategy. They are in sharp contrast with the goal of One Belt One Road, which is of mutual interest and a win-win situation. However, One Belt One Road is still regarded by some countries from the traditional geopolitical perspective. To equip One Belt One Road with new geopolitical concepts, the author hereby proposes the theory of land-ocean peaceful cooperation, which is a non-alliance network community of common interests, security and destiny. This community would be established for mutual benefi ts, between ocean countries and land countries, among ocean countries and among land countries. It could help policy communication among participant countries of One Belt One Road, and the establishment of an open net-like system of peaceful operation and common development. The theory of land-ocean peaceful cooperation of sustainable security, together with the practice of international cooperation of One Belt One Road, will undoubtedly break through the vicious cycle of the Eurasian geographical fi ght and confrontation between sea powers and land powers illustrated by the traditional geopolitics.     

道路自信与制度自信的双重逻辑——“一国两制”的时代论域与哲学意涵

哲学的特质决定了其对现实世界分析的深刻底蕴,即历史的客观性与规律的概括性。对"一国两制"道路的认识与评价,必须从国情与时代的演进中来探寻发展的逻辑。"一国两制"的科学性体现在原则性与灵活性的有机统一,适应了生产力与生产关系的发展规律,丰富、拓展了马克思主义国家学说的当代论域。     

Sailors' families and the urban institutional framework in early modern Holland

This article points to a largely neglected theme in the maritime history: the important role of sailors' families in urban seafaring communities during the Early Modern Period. At the end of the seventeenth century and during the first decades of the eighteenth century, about 20% of the crewmembers of the Dutch East India Company (VOC) were married. Accordingly, in the towns in Holland where the VOC was present, many women had to run a household by themselves for a long period of time. The sailors' families were often confronted by emotional and financial distress, which to some extent affected the financial expenses of VOC towns as well. Many of these families were however able to cope because they received material support from various urban institutions. The Company created a system that encouraged sailors to send their money home during voyages, while urban poor relief often temporarily complemented the family's budget. Contrary to other married women, wives of sailors could obtain the legal power to engage in financial transactions, or to have access to inheritances. Town councils, civil courts, church councils, charity institutions and the East India Company were all willing to help the seamen's families. Their motives were twofold: while urban communities benefited from financially stable families, and the VOC compensated for their low pay by offering their employees fringe benefits, the attitudes towards seamen's wives also indicate that the urban elites genuinely wanted to provide some assistance to these needy families.     

“第三条道路”与朴槿惠政府对朝政策走向

朴槿惠在韩国总统竞选期间与胜选后多次指出,要改善对朝关系,既不继续大国家党李明博政府的强硬政策,也不采取民主党金大中政府与卢武铉政府的“阳光政策。’’,宣称要走“第三条道路”。本文首先分析另外“两条道路”,即“阳光政策”与李明博对朝政策之间的主要分歧。以此为背景,本文从影响朴槿惠对朝政策的因素入手,指出朴槿惠对朝政策“第三条道路”的出发点是要改变另外“两条道路”非“软”即“硬”的做法。总体方向上很可能是安全上继续保持强大威慑与高压态势,但在经济合作等层面释放更大善意与灵活性。在不降低李明博政府强硬政策“硬”的一面的同时,继承“阳光政策”“软”的一面,甚至会更软。最后部分也指出了在朝鲜第三次核试验后“第三条道路”的实施前景。     

建立以自由贸易协定机制为支撑的“一带一路”长效合作机制

在全球形势深度变革的情势下,中国提出“一带一路”倡议,倡导与沿线国家共同打造命运共同体,体现出经济层面上的国际合作和推动全球治理体系更加公正合理的努力。“一带一路”倡议不是国际法上的国际协定,因此在现行国际秩序中推进“一带一路”建设,宜建立以自由贸易协定机制为支撑的“一带一路”长效合作机制。国家层面的自由贸易协定,符合世界贸易组织法,可为多个议题设定实体性和程序性规则,增加法律的确定性;同时又能借助自由贸易协定的机制创设功能,掌握区域性国际规则制定的主导权,并进而影响全球性国际规则的重构,这是全局性的战略考量。     

从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

China’s Structural Power and the Fate of the BCIM Economic Corridor

ABSTRACT

In 2013, China and India officially established an economic corridor (the Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar Economic Corridor, BCIM-EC) that would cut across Myanmar and Bangladesh. But while the formal process of cooperation among the four countries is in place, many obstacles to its implementation remain at the international, national and local levels. Is meaningful collaboration possible within the BCIM-EC framework? In terms of two dimensions of structural power as conceptualised by Susan Strange, security and trade, China’s structural power in Myanmar is much stronger than India’s. It is therefore likely that this imbalance will prevent the BCIM-EC project, which currently appears to be overshadowed by China’s Belt and Road Initiative, from having a fruitful outcome.